Turn 6 - July 24, 1941

Another good week of progress on all fronts. Key pockets in the north and south are collapsed, and a few new ones are created as we try (in vain) to keep the Soviet loss rate higher than the replenishment rate.

Situation

4th Panzer Group has again outmaneuvered the enemy in the north, encircling the screen in front of Novgorod and cutting off nine divisions. The Finns continue to press from the northeast toward Leningrad:

In the center, Vitebsk is encircled and Smolensk is seriously threatened as the two panzer groups link up just west of the primary objective, trapping 30 Soviet divisions:

In the south, the Lvov pocket is finally collapsed and the 6th and 17th Armies rush eastward to relieve 1st Panzer Group so it can resume operations in a southeasterly direction. The Romanians make good progress toward Odessa as 11th Army turns the flank of the enemy defensive line extending northward from the city:

Operations - Army Group North

In the extreme north the Finns capture Vyborg and move with very little resistance. There are a few nontrivial Soviet units just north of the stop line in the way, which is actually good news because every enemy unit stuck on the Finnish front is one fewer opposing the Wehrmacht. The Finnish army is purely infantry-based (i.e. no tank/mobile formations) but it is a well-trained, well-equipped force with experience fighting the Soviets (the "Winter War" of 1939). They are far superior to anything the other Axis allies have to offer, so it's a pity they only cooperate with us "with restrictions".

They are free to move as far south as the "no move" line running just north of Novgorod, but cannot attack anything south of the "no attack" line unless we take Leningrad. If we do so we will be able to use them to hold the northern flank of the entire front. The only caveat to this is that Finnish units suffer continuing morale hits each week they spend south of the no attack line. They are really just piggybacking off of Barbarossa to regain lost territory on the Karelian Isthmus and have little interest in throwing themselves in with the German armies of conquest.

Meanwhile further to the south, the Pskov pocket is collapsed and Reinhardt's 41st Panzer Corps breaks through ramshackle enemy defenses north of the city, then wheels east and captures Novgorod. Manstein's corps stays mostly idle around the Dno area, but the 8th Panzer Division attacks to the northeast, reaching Lake Ilmen and sealing the encirclement of nine Soviet divisions:

The defeat at Pskov has thrown the Soviet defensive efforts in this area into disarray and we have a firm hold on the initiative. There is not much they can do to build an organized defense between the forward elements of the army group and the Leningrad suburbs, which they have been fortifying since turn 2.

One point of concern is the rapid extension of Army Group North's frontage on the right flank:

16th Army is holding a front about 140 miles wide with just nine infantry divisions, with more coming up from the OKH reserve but we are relying on the Soviets not attacking there in great numbers. There won't be any possibility of clearing this flank for at least a few more weeks, when we can think about sending 4th Panzer Group back down to the south.

Operations - Army Group Center

3rd Panzer Group makes excellent progress in its southeasterly drive toward Yartsevo, trapping 10 Soviet divisions defending Vitebsk and continuing around to the east of Smolensk. 20th Panzer Division is able to link up with units 2nd Panzer Group on the Dnepr, still west of the city but good for a a combined cutting off of 30 Soviet divisions. Had Guderian's panzers had more fuel, he may have been able to advance all the way to the original objective at Yelnya and complete the encirclement east of Smolensk. But that is not the case so we have to settle for something slightly more limited.

This pocket isn't hermetically sealed, but there is only a very slight chance of escape maybe through the gap just southwest of Smolensk. Divisions project zones of control into neighboring hexes, however, and Soviet units typically do not have the movement points to make their way through multiple enemy ZOC's in a turn. This is why we use this sort of checkerboard pattern when we have an insufficient number of units to cover a wide front.

3rd Panzer Group is also risking overextension a bit with the two panzer divisions east of Smolensk.

The enemy could try to move back into the gap between 19th Panzer and its closest neighbor to the west (20th Panzer), temporarily cutting off both the 19th and 12th. It's not a major concern since we should have no trouble reestablishing contact with them if it does happen. It is worth the risk in this case because we are now in position to restrict the flow of enemy units either in or out of Smolensk.

The only other thing to note here is that Kluge's 4th Army is now mostly across the Dnepr and able to relieve 2nd Panzer Group, so some of the panzer and motorized infantry formations have been pulled off the line for a brief period of rest/refit. Newly-arrived 2nd Army has taken up a position on the extreme right wing of the army group and 4th Army slides over to the northeast to make room.

Operations - Army Group South

Another housekeeping turn for AGS as the remaining pockets are finally collapsed, and 6th and 17th Armies race eastward to establish a continuous front with advancing 11th Army. 1st Panzer Group has been almost fully relieved by 6th Army on the Kiev bridgehead, so that formation is primed for a deep penetration into southeast Ukraine next week. The Soviets have taken up an awful defensive position that will be easily broken up; the question is whether we want to use the full panzer group to accomplish this or have portions of it continue to the southeast toward the industrial targets. As has already been the case, the biggest problem confronting the army group here is not really the enemy but rather the vast distances involved and number of worthwhile objectives. It seems the whole of Russia is ours for the taking down here but we have neither the units nor the logistical apparatus to take advantage before STAVKA manages to put up a meaningful resistance.

The map may be a bit hard to read but the idea is that the panzers from Kleist's group will skirt along the west bank of the Dnepr and flank that Soviet line, then wheel southward, cutting the enemy off from forces east of the river and setting up the encirclement. 11th Army may even be able to link up with us just with the infantry. 6th Army has one corps left to move into the Kiev area, which will take up a position where 1st Panzer Group currently sits now. 17th Army moves southeast and will take a position alongside 6th Army. So the front is shaping up to be, from a line north --> south from Kiev down to Odessa, 6th Army --> 17th Army --> 11th Army --> Romanians. The panzer group doesn't have an assigned position on the front line because it will continue to be the sort of fast-attack arm of the army group.

Here's a better view of 1st Panzer Group's position in relation to our industrial targets to the east/southeast:

Kharkov is the most distant target and not really an objective for this phase, but it would be really nice to capture it in 1941. It has the biggest T-34 tank factories in the Soviet Union, and if we can get there before STAVKA has a chance to evacuate the factories to the east, they will lose them forever.

Casualty Report

Soviet losses are into the millions now, but this week was a bit costly for us as our own casualty count approaches 100,000. We are still at more than a 10:1 ratio in enemy casualties to ours, however.

These numbers look impressive after only a month of campaigning. But how well are we really doing? We can compare the overall man count we checked on June 22:

With today's (July 31):

In the period June 22 - July 31, the Red Army actually _increased _in size by 828,662 men in spite of incurring 1,043,957 casualties. So all told they have managed to mobilize 1.87 million men in the first month of the war. Also notable is the impact of tank/AFV losses on the enemy (~7,000), which they have not been able to replace. Their artillery numbers are almost as impressive as that of the manpower, with the total there increasing by around 6,000 pieces despite overall losses at 12,000 during the first month. This is the impossible problem we are dealing with and it will only get worse the longer the campaign drags on.

Enemy Action

Leningrad defenses continue to strengthen:

The enemy refuses to make our path to Leningrad easy and throws up a new wall in front of Panzer Group 4:

They are also starting to hit us with limited counterattacks at thin points along our line, and here they manage to push back a regiment of 1st Panzer Division and establish a breakout corridor from the Shimsk pocket. They do so at a murderous cost in men and material, but as we have already seen manpower is not an issue for the Red Army.

In the center, they do just as we expected and cut off 19th and 20th Panzer divisions. A few units manage to slip the noose in the Smolensk pocket, but the good news is that we aren't seeing the massive influx of reinforcements we did last week:

Another counterattack on Army Group Center's right flank forces an infantry division of 4th Army to retreat, with a 20:1 enemy-to-friendly loss ratio:

In the south the enemy starts to apply pressure to the Kiev bridgehead with two attacks.

The lower attack is noteworthy: here three Soviet rifle divisions attack the _Leibstandarte _and incur very heavy losses:

The Soviet positions in this area are mostly unchanged however, and they have played right into our hands by moving forward and attacking the left wing of 1st Panzer Group. Now we can confront them in open terrain instead of having to contend with fortified units further back, in the uneven terrain along the Dnepr west bank.