Turn 5 - July 17, 1941

That's Heinz Guderian, father of the modern blitzkrieg. His ideas on the use of the armored fighting vehicle changed mobile warfare (and history) forever, and he will take center stage as his 2nd Panzer Group carries out its famous Dnepr River crossing on the way to Smolensk. Will he be able to deal a decisive blow to the Soviet Western Front and lead the fated assault on Moscow?

Progress is considerably better than last week as major operations get underway in the north and center. Overall situation maps:

The Finns have started moving east and southeast in strength and have little trouble surrounding Vyborg, pushing their way to the Finnish stop line just north of Leningrad. There is not much they can do to help us once they reach that line, as they are not allowed to move or attack south of it so it is up to the Germans to take the prized objective of Army Group North.

Army Group North has secured Pskov and managed to complete a limited encirclement of the retreating enemy defenders to the southeast:

Army Group Center has gotten its panzer groups going on the wings and made good progress, threatening both Vitebsk and Smolensk:

Meanwhile in the south we seek to consolidate the unexpected gains at Kiev and enjoy nearly total freedom of movement. The Soviet Southwestern Front is in freefall:

As we are now starting to reveal our hand with the panzer force dispositions and threaten key objectives, we expect STAVKA to do a lot of readjusting next turn.

Operations - Army Group North

The Finns have opened up the extreme northern front and have the enemy rushing back to the safety of the Leningrad defenses.

4th Panzer Group makes good on its effort to encircle the now-doomed Pskov defenders, and in so doing breaks through to the northeast to cause trouble in the enemy's rear echelon:

The SS "Totenkopf" motorized division (yellow-on-black counter, upper right corner) breaks east and overruns several Soviet airfields, taking a crucial rail junction at Dno in the process. This particular junction may be important because it lies along a north-south line heading down to the Velikie Luki area, and has been a nice option for the Soviets in moving troops laterally back and forth between trouble areas. The enemy's ability to quickly respond once it identifies the main thrust of a panzer formation is weakened by cutting this line.

Manstein's 56th Panzer Corps is able, with help from 18th Army's infantry, to break through makeshift defenses and link up with Reinhardt in the south. We trap seven Soviet divisions in this pocket, and should be able to reduce it next turn. Notice in the large enemy concentration on the panzer group's right wing how many of the units have the "R" designation; this means they have "routed", or been badly beaten up and become disorganized. These units cannot move or stand and fight if attacked, but they undergo a "rally" check each turn to attempt to reorganize. So this is a concentration that appears large but is a mess of fleeing Soviets, covered by a thin defensive line.

A looming question is what to do with 4th Panzer Group after we consolidate our gains in this area. The terrain approaching Leningrad is not good tank country and will be better covered by infantry and heavy guns, and tanks are totally wasted attacking a large urban area such as Leningrad. There are enemy supply points in the area surrounding Leningrad however that may require neutralizing by fast mobile forces, because STAVKA will begin heavily reinforcing them with Pskov fallen.

Operations - Army Group Center

Hoth finally makes his break east and the support from 9th Army's 20th Corps pays off in a big way. We blow a huge hole in the defenses north of the Dvina and wheel southeast, turning the Soviet flank and putting the defensive lines along the Dvina west of Vitebsk in jeopardy:

The enemy units left facing Hoth's forward elements at the moment are stacks of headquarters and air base units, which do not have any combat value (they can be simply overrun by combat units). It will again be interesting to watch STAVKA's response in this case, because the units left over to the north may be needed to hinder Army Group North's progress toward Leningrad. If that is true, the enemy may have to abandon his strong defensive positions west of Vitebsk to block the way of the panzers. If he does not do so, he risks total encirclement by Panzer Groups 2 and 3 which will also seal the fate of Vitebsk and Smolensk. Not to mention the fact that almost all of Western Front's front-line strength is concentrated here, west of the two cities. The arrows on the map show two alternative routes 3rd Panzer Group may take in its next drive, depending on how the enemy adjusts to defend and terrain.

We may also require the help of infantry from 16th Army to secure the base of the panzer group's penetration as it extends eastward. As that extension will lead to the group becoming very drawn out, a new motorized division has been allocated to it from OKH reserve.

2nd Panzer Group finally gets going and crosses the Dnepr in force:

As you can see, the only thing preventing Guderian from achieving all his objectives this turn is fuel (as usual). The Soviets appear to have no reserves in this area and the terrain is nice, flat tank country. Guderian has three possible axes of advance open to him and he will choose what to do based on whether the enemy decides to pull back from his positions along the Dnepr. Those units are in danger of being cut off, so if they stay put, we move straight north and press for an immediate link-up with Hoth. Smolensk is a strategic/political objective and the main priority is the destruction of the Red Army in the field. If we can trap the Western Front then the cities will be easy targets for us anyway.

There is still some cause for concern with the enemy reserve formation at Gomel, which can threaten the right wing of Army Group Center:

2nd Army brings up the rear and will slot in on the army group's extreme right flank, establishing defensive positions in good terrain on the west bank of the Dnepr. STAVKA curiously elected not to send the Gomel reserves south to deal with the dire situation in the south.

Operations - Army Group South

1st Panzer Group consolidates its gains at Kiev, and the Leibstandarte expands the bridgehead across the Dnepr with no resistance. 6th Army eliminates the Zhitomir pocket and races east to free the panzer divisions for further operations to the southeast.

Meanwhile 17th Army works to eliminate the last holdouts from the Lvov pocket with help from the Slovak and Hungarian contingents, with the Romanians keeping a light screen to the southeast. These are weak units but they can continue to push the front southeast from the Proskurov area because there is virtually no resistance there. This is turning into a masterful first month of maneuvering for Army Group South. The enemy seems to be trying to build a defensive line on Panzer Group 1's right wing west of the Dnepr, but this is on open ground and is easily flanked. The group is holding a corps in reserve, northeast of Vinnitsa, to prepare for a drive to achieve this.

The developments up in that area seem to have prompted the Soviets to pull defenders off the line opposing 11th Army and the Romanian contingent, and they also make good progress on the extreme south front:

If this keeps up 11th Army may continue eastward, bypassing Odessa and heading to Nikolaev. But the Soviets will retain a strong presence at Odessa and the Romanians will need help to deal with that. Odessa cannot be fully cut off because it's a Black Sea port and can draw sea supply.

Casualty Report

This was a particularly severe turn for the enemy, as we eliminated a number of surrounded units and pressed in the center with strong attacks.

Next week we will break 800,000 Soviet casualties with just 63,000 for the Axis armies. Also a quick look at air losses:

The bulk of Soviet losses here still came from the June 22 surprise airfield bombings, but a few more hundred planes lost since then brings the total to 4,476. The Luftwaffe is only down 102 planes so far, so we are doing nicely in the air.

Enemy Action

The Soviet Northwest Front adjusts as it can, withdrawing to the north and west:

Army Group Center, however, now finds itself confronted with a sea of enemy units:

Smolensk in July no longer looks a foregone conclusion, especially if the Soviets are able to continue throwing armies at us in such quantities. The enemy is obviously starting to favor defense in depth where it can, which may not save Smolensk but will cost us precious time and resources. 2nd Panzer Group will have to fight its way through as much as forty miles of enemy front to achieve any degree of mobility, not taking into account what STAVKA will commit from its reserves in the coming weeks. The immediate dilemma for us is whether we try to send 2nd Panzer directly north over the Dnepr again, to try a link-up with 3rd Panzer west of Smolensk and create a smaller pocket to cut down the Western Front to size. We could also continue as planned toward Yelnya and Yartsevo east of the city, which cannot be achieved within the next week and risks allowing enemy units to continue escaping the pincers and placing themselves east of us. 2nd Panzer is still low on fuel, so 3rd Panzer (whose supply situation is much better) will have to do the lion's share of the work regardless of which way we go.

In the south the Soviets are at least offering some resistance along either of 1st Panzer Group's potential axes of advance, but still lacks the strength to stop us. With German units already firmly across the Dnepr, the Soviets have little in the way of natural terrain barriers to use to construct an adequate defensive line.

The only real problem for us in this sector is the slow pace of our infantry in relieving the mobile divisions protecting the Kiev bridgehead so they can be freed for further penetration to the southeast.