Turn 2 - June 26, 1941

This painting is Napoleon's infamous retreat across the Berezina River in 1812 near Borisov. The battle that occurred there did not have a good outcome for the French, and according to Wikipedia the word Berezina itself has ever since been a synonym for "disaster" in the French language. Tanks from Hoth's Panzer Group 3 make the crossing at the same spot, heading in the opposite direction. Will we end up suffering the same tragedy as the ill-fated Grande Armee?
A few special rules are in effect for the early game which I forgot: (1) turn 1 is special and only four days long, instead of the usual 7-day length, to simulate the rapidity of events unfolding in the early days of the campaign; and (2) 11th Army and the various Axis allied units (Romanians, Hungarians, Finns) do not actually activate until turn 3, not turn 2 as I had originally expected. This is not ideal particularly in the south, where we cannot hope to create a pocket centered around Lvov without 11th Army's help.

Operations - Army Group North

Hoepner's Panzer Group 1 moves forward from its Dvina bridgeheads northeast in the direction of Pskov, where Soviet defenses are already formulating:

We aim to cross the Velikaya River, which flows south from Lake Pskov just to the west of the city itself, before a defensive line can be constructed there. It's the last natural defensive position the enemy can use to block the route northeast around Pskov. Manstein's 56th Panzer Corps manages a crossing just twenty miles below the mouth of the river with the 3rd Motorized Infantry division, but that unit is forced to withdraw to the west bank as it is low on fuel and in danger of becoming isolated.

We opt to abandon the attempt to follow through on 3rd Motorized's progress, as we are not interested in battering our way through the five Soviet divisions occupying the east bank. Manstein instead will hold north and keep the Velikaya defensive line engaged, while Reinhardt's 41st Corps sends its panzers across to the south at Opochka around the Soviet left. There is still a large gap however between the panzer group and the bulk of Army Group North's infantry, which is still busy clearing out the remnants of the Soviet border defenses in Lithuania. We will have to weigh any further advance northeast by Reinhardt's contingent against the growing threat on our own right flank: the enemy concentration west of Velikie Luki. We are similarly exposed on the left flank, but this is not as much of a concern as there doesn't appear to be much of an enemy presence west of Pskov in Estonia.

Operations - Army Group Center

Things go according to plan in the center, with the panzer groups linking up at Berezino and encircling Minsk. It turns out that the enemy mostly evacuated that city's defenders to the east, and it is taken almost without a fight. That is not great news, as we had hoped STAVKA would leave more units in the jaws of the panzer groups to defend the city. After the Berezino link-up, the groups fan out again, with Hoth's group moving north and crossing on either side of Borisov (cutting off the defenders in the process). Guderian crosses to the south at Bobruisk and encounters almost no opposition.

Meanwhile the infantry brings up the rear to maintain a continuous line to the armor where it can, and works to reduce the Bialystok pocket. 4th Army (blue counters) has positioned itself on the east edge of the ring and we will not see more enemy units slipping away.

Panzer Group 2 is in a good position with flanks well-protected and a solid supply line back to the railhead. We reduce the enemy fortress at Brest-Litovsk, capturing 20,000 men in the process and opening up the main rail line by which the army group's right flank will draw supply.

The same cannot be said for Panzer Group 3, however. 9th Army (green counters) has been busy clearing enemy units escaping the Bialystok pocket north through Vilnius, and have fallen far behind the panzers leaving a large gap on the left flank:

While the enemy may not have units available to exploit the gap, the panzer group will have limited options going forward without infantry support. If we hold the group in its current position for a few days and send Guderian across the Dnepr to the south, we buy ourselves time to move up the infantry and perhaps draw away some enemy forces from Vitebsk to the south to check Guderian.

I am a little concerned at this point that the quantity of enemy units trapped in this massive encirclement spanning from the border all the way to Minsk is too low. Hopefully it does not turn out to have been a big mistake allowing the enemy to escape through Vilnius early.

Operations - Army Group South

Progress is again slow here as the enemy chooses to keep a strong armored presence in front of the army group, instead of withdrawing east:

Panzer Group 1 continues as planned and looks in good position to link up with 11th Army in early July. We have brought in an extra panzer corps (14th) that was frozen on turn 1 replenishing, as well as two crack SS motorized infantry divisions (Wiking and Leibstandarte, the black unit counters on the map). The infantry does its best to keep the enemy engaged, so it cannot withdraw to the south and then east out of our future "Lvov pocket". 11th Army cannot start its campaign soon enough!

Casualty Report

The Red Army has lost ~330,000 men in a week and a half, which is a good clip. The Soviet manpower pool and industrial capacity is so great that we must push this number up into the millions to have any hope of taking Moscow before the blizzard and being in good position going into the campaign season for 1942.

Enemy Action

STAVKA moves to counter Reinhardt's flanking maneuver south of Pskov:

Panzer Group 4 will have to start using its tanks to punch holes in these fledgling defensive lines. The days of free-roaming mobility in the north are probably over for the most part. These new units appear to have come forward from the reserve concentrations at Velikie Luki.

Recon flights show a defensive buildup at Leningrad:

In the center, Soviets continue to mass at Vitebsk and form a defensive line along the northern Dnepr bend. Encouraging signs along Guderian's axis of advance though, as the recon flights show very little along the southern route across the Dnepr:

Not much movement by the enemy in the south, which is a good sign. STAVKA seems to be convinced Panzer Group 1 is positioning for an eastward move toward Zhitomir, which is an incorrect assumption. We will try to seal the Lvov pocket next turn by linking up with now-activated 11th Army.

Logistics

Supply problems are beginning to surface in the mobile units of army groups North and Center. Panzer Group 4, especially Manstein's corps, is so far northeast of the railheads that it is not able to draw fuel to sustain operations at the pace it has maintained for the past two weeks. Take 1st Panzer Division of Reinhardt's corps, which leads the flanking move across the Velikaya River:

The column on the left shows the (theoretical) numbers a 1941 panzer division should have at full strength; the right what the division actually has available. Somewhat alarming are the tank numbers -- for example, we only have 73 operational medium tanks (Panzer III's), or 69% availability; 42 light tanks (Panzer II's) at 76% availability. This despite relatively light combat operations to date, so this is likely a combination of high attrition rate due to breakdowns (which are recoverable) and perhaps starting the campaign understrength.

Supply situation for 1st Panzer:

Plenty of ammunition and supply (food, water, etc.), again due to light combat operations, but the fuel situation is not good. We only received 30% of fuel required from truck shipments last week, bringing us to 35% total. The division is within command and supply range of its HQ (41st Panzer Corps), but that HQ is also quite far from the railhead and only draws a limited amount of fuel to distribute amongst its three divisions:

41st Panzer Corps drew roughly 300 units of fuel last week, 94 of which went to 1st Panzer. So overall, mobile units in this AO are only getting a third of the fuel they need for a week's worth of full movement. Since several of these units used all of their available fuel just getting to the Pskov area, that third is all we have to keep the fighting vehicles gassed up for the week. We will have to consider spending precious days idle doing an HQ buildup to provide the impetus for a final drive toward the Leningrad area.

The -41 "vehicles received" number there is the game's abstraction for maintenance work on broken-down and damaged vehicles. As vehicles damage due to mechanical failure and combat action, they are returned to HQ units, which must send them to rear-area motor pools at the Army Group level. From there, vehicles are repaired and added to a global vehicle pool, where they will be redistributed back down to units on an on-demand basis.

Panzer Groups 2 and 3 are in a slightly better fuel situation, with the forward units hovering around 50% fuel. But we have kept the armored units away from heavy fighting in the opening days of Barbarossa, so the good news is that we have plenty of ammunition available for heavier fighting in the weeks to come.